Numbers
The few numbers that decide whether the venture pays, how firm each one is, and the result with and without grants. A funder or lender will ask which of these are assumptions, so it is better to say so first.
The venture depends on grants. It loses $12,000 a year without them and earns $3,000 with them.
Without grants
-$12,000
loss a year
Price needed to cover costs: $33.00 per kg dried. Their price is $28.00.
With $15,000 in grants a year
$3,000
profit a year
Price needed to cover costs: $26.75 per kg dried. Their price is $28.00.
Sales of $67,200 against costs of $79,200 a year. 5 of the 5 numbers behind this are assumptions, so the result is only as firm as they can make them.
Today and after the investment
Without grants, the investment takes the venture from a loss of $12,000 a year to a profit of $16,800 a year.
| A year | Today | After this investment of $210,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Selling price (per kg dried) | $28.00 | $28.00unchanged |
| Volume sold a year | 2,400 kg dried | 2,400 kg driedunchanged |
| Cost for each unit (per kg dried) | $33.00 | $21.00AssumptionThe shared dryer in place of contract drying. From the supplier quote and the founders' estimate. |
| Yearly costs that stay the same | $0 | $0unchanged |
| Grants and subsidies a year | $15,000 | $0AssumptionThe wage subsidy would have ended. |
| Result without grants | loses $12,000 | earns $16,800 |
| Result with grants | earns $3,000 | earns $16,800 |
The right hand column is the venture's own plan, not a forecast by Seaweed Economy. A plan is an assumption until it happens.
The numbers and how firm each one is
- Assumption
Selling price
$28.00 per kg dried
The founders' estimate. The snack brand has not named a price.
- Assumption
Volume sold a year
2,400 kg dried
The 2025 test line yield (measured, see Evidence) scaled to two hectares, and assumed all sold. No buyer has agreed to this volume yet.
- Assumption
Cost for each unit
$33.00 per kg dried
Worked out in the Farm Economics Calculator, all costs included.
- Assumption
Yearly costs that stay the same
$0 a year
Included in the cost for each unit.
- Assumption
Grants and subsidies a year
$15,000 a year
A wage subsidy applied for, not confirmed.
Next
- Evidence: record the quote, agreement or result behind a number.
- Economics Lab: work out a cost or a price line by line.
- Capital: which kinds of funding fit where the venture is now.